India won’t tolerate any haughty step of the USA. Image Courtesy – CNBC
Impact of the trio combination of Putin, Jinping and Modi after the haughty step taken by Trump
The growing collaboration and public displays of unity between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, particularly as seen at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, are having a significant impact on global geopolitics. This trilateral dynamic is not just a symbolic show of camaraderie but a strategic alignment with far-reaching implications.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the impact:
1. Challenge to the US-Led World Order
The most significant impact is the perceived challenge to the post-Cold War, US-dominated international system. The three nations, each with its own reasons for scepticism toward the West, are increasingly using platforms like the SCO and BRICS to promote a “multipolar” world order.
Public Messaging: At the recent SCO summit, Xi Jinping used his platform to condemn “bullying behaviour” in international politics, a veiled but clear reference to the United States. Putin praised India and China for their efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, aligning Moscow with the broader SCO message of rejecting Western intervention.
Economic Counterweights: The combined economic and military might of these three countries is immense. They represent a significant portion of the world’s population, GDP, and military spending. Their cooperation seeks to create a new economic system that is less dependent on the US dollar and Western financial institutions, as evidenced by growing trade in local currencies.
2. A “Reverse Nixon” Moment
Some analysts have described this development as a “Reverse Nixon.” In the 1970s, US President Richard Nixon used diplomacy to drive a wedge between China and the Soviet Union. In the current context, the US, particularly under Donald Trump’s presidency, has attempted to isolate China and Russia. However, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on both China and India has had the unintended consequence of pushing New Delhi closer to Beijing and Moscow. Instead of weakening America’s adversaries, this policy has emboldened them and strengthened their resolve to cooperate. Russia, in this scenario, has positioned itself as the “pivot power” between China and India.
3. Geopolitical Re-alignments
The warming relations among the trio are reshaping strategic alliances across Eurasia and beyond.
Strained US-India Ties: Donald Trump’s “America First” policies and his imposition of high tariffs on Indian imports have created significant strain in the US-India relationship. This has pushed India to seek closer ties with Russia and, to a lesser extent, China, in order to assert its “strategic autonomy.” India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian oil, despite US warnings, is a key point of contention.
Strengthening of the SCO and BRICS: These multilateral organisations, initially seen by some as largely ineffective, are gaining new relevance as platforms for non-Western cooperation. The optics of Modi, Putin, and Xi at the SCO summit sent a clear signal of unity and shared purpose, making these forums more credible as counterweights to Western-led alliances like the G7.
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4. Economic and Energy Realities
The collaboration is underpinned by concrete economic and energy interests.
Energy Security: India and China are the biggest buyers of Russian crude oil, providing Moscow with a critical revenue stream amid Western sanctions. The recent signing of a major gas pipeline deal between Russia and China further cements their energy partnership.
Trade and Development: India and China are both major economies with ambitious development goals. Their cooperation on trade and in forums like the SCO and BRICS is essential for their economic growth. While bilateral disputes remain, particularly along their shared border, both countries recognise the need for a pragmatic approach to trade and economic ties.
5. Challenges and Limitations
Despite the outward appearance of a united front, there are underlying tensions and limitations to this collaboration.
India-China Distrust: The relationship between India and China remains complex and is characterised by a deep-seated trust deficit, particularly due to ongoing border disputes. While both sides have shown a willingness to engage in dialogue, a full-scale strategic alliance is unlikely.
Russia’s Reliance on China: Russia’s increasing economic reliance on China due to Western sanctions is a long-term risk for Moscow, which may find itself as the junior partner in the relationship.
India’s Balancing Act: India is not abandoning its relationships with the US and its Western partners. It continues to participate in groups like the Quad (with the US, Japan, and Australia) and is a key player in the Indo-Pacific strategy. India’s foreign policy is a delicate balancing act aimed at maximising its own interests and maintaining its strategic independence.
Donald Trump started a tariff war between India and the USA
The “tariff war” between the United States and India, particularly under the second Trump administration, has emerged as a significant point of tension, straining a bilateral relationship once hailed as a cornerstone of global democratic cooperation. This trade conflict is a complex mix of economic grievances, geopolitical considerations, and nationalistic rhetoric. On the other hand, India is taking a haughty step against them.
The Genesis of the Tariff War
The current escalation of tariffs has its roots in two primary issues:
Trade Imbalance and Market Access: President Donald Trump has long criticised what he describes as a “one-sided” and “disaster” of a trade relationship with India. He has repeatedly focused on the high tariffs India imposes on certain American goods, citing the example of Harley-Davidson motorcycles, which faced a 100% duty. From his perspective, India exports a large volume of goods to the U.S. while keeping its market relatively closed to American products. The initial tariffs, a “reciprocal” 25% on Indian goods, were a direct response to this perceived imbalance.
India’s Russian Oil Imports: The primary driver of the most recent and significant tariff hike is India’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude oil. The U.S. administration views these purchases as financially supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, thereby undermining Western sanctions and geopolitical objectives. To pressure New Delhi, the Trump administration imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, bringing the total levy on certain exports to a steep 50%. This action effectively links U.S. trade policy with its foreign policy goals and serves as a punitive measure for India’s “strategic autonomy.”
India’s Response and Position
India has not backed down from the U.S. pressure and the haughty step. Its response has been characterised by a firm stance on its sovereign right to make its own policy decisions and a push for economic self-reliance.
Sovereignty and Energy Security: India has consistently defended its oil purchases from Russia, arguing that it is a matter of national interest and energy security for its 1.4 billion citizens. Indian officials have also pointed out the perceived double standard, as other nations like China and European Union members also continue to trade with Russia without facing similar penalties and a haughty step like this.
WTO Consultations: India has taken its grievances to the World Trade Organization (WTO), seeking consultations with the U.S. over the imposed tariffs on various products, including steel, aluminium, and, most recently, copper. New Delhi has described the tariffs as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable” and believes they are, in essence, a safeguard measure disguised as national security concerns.
Economic Countermeasures: While avoiding direct retaliatory tariffs on American goods so far, India is implementing strategies to mitigate the impact of the U.S. tariffs. This includes expediting an “Export Promotion Mission” to help affected industries like textiles, gems and jewellery, and chemicals. The government is also considering support measures like loan repayment moratoriums and increased duty refunds for exporters.
The Impact of the Tariff War
The escalating trade tensions with the US, having taken a haughty step, are having a multifaceted impact on both countries and the broader global landscape.
Economic Repercussions: The 50% tariff is a major blow to key Indian sectors that are heavily dependent on the U.S. market. It puts Indian goods at a significant price disadvantage compared to competitors from countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. This could lead to a slowdown in export-led growth, job losses, and a liquidity crunch for Indian exporters.
Strategic Undermining: Perhaps the most significant consequence is the potential for the tariffs to undermine the strategic partnership that the U.S. has carefully built with India over the past two decades. Analysts in the U.S. and India warn that this aggressive, transactional approach risks alienating New Delhi and pushing it closer to its geopolitical rivals, namely Russia and China. This is seen by many as a strategic miscalculation that could weaken the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy.
A “Reverse Nixon” Effect: Some commentators argue that the U.S. is creating a “Reverse Nixon” effect. Whereas President Richard Nixon’s diplomacy drove a wedge between the Soviet Union and China, Trump’s tariff policies on both India and China, combined with his criticism of India’s Russia ties, are inadvertently strengthening the ties between the three nations, as seen by their recent collaboration at the SCO summit.
Stalled Trade Negotiations: The tariff war is a haughty step that has effectively stalled ongoing bilateral trade negotiations between the U.S. and India. The U.S. team has deferred its visit to New Delhi, and a resolution on the steep tariffs is now seen as a crucial precondition for any future trade deal. This leaves the trade relationship in a state of uncertainty and prevents progress in other areas of economic cooperation.
The idea of a Russia-China-India “trio” or “amalgamation” is more about a shifting alignment of shared interests than a formal bloc. The US is definitely being affected by this for its haughty step, as it challenges the unipolar world order and forces the US to reconsider its diplomatic strategies, particularly with key partners like India. The convergence of these three powerful non-Western nations could lead to a more multipolar world, with significant implications for global stability, trade, and power dynamics.
